As a former smoker (I quit 7 years, 10 months and 13 days ago, but who’s counting), I know how hard nicotine is to quit and over the years have encouraged my friends to quit–with absolutely no success.
Until now.
I recently completed a bet designed to get a friend to quit smoking and at the 30 day mark, he remained abstinent. Given that quitting smoking for meaningful periods of time is extremely rare (per quit attempt), I wanted to share so others could initiate similar efforts and improve upon the method.
Structure of the bet
The bet is designed to provide big upside and meaningful downside for the first 30 days and then ongoing but declining risk of forfeiting the initial winnings.
In this instance, we bet $500 at 3:1 odds in which the smoker stood to win $1,500 if he quit smoking for 30 days. The amount should vary based on the individuals income such that winning will provide a big windfall and losing should bring significant pain but not cause insolvency. In this instance, winning the bet would provide a 50% boost in monthly income, while losing would represent a 15% loss of income. These seem like good starting percentages to target.
At the 30 day mark, if the smoker wins, they receive the payout. At that point, we agreed on a clawback that goes down by $100 each month for 15 months. For instance if the smoker relapses at day 45, they would have to return $1400.
public accountability
While you should never gamble with people you don’t trust in this sort of bet, a key component to this bet was having our friend group on high alert for the smoker breaking during the initial 30 days.
At the request of one of the members of the group text, I offered a $50 bounty to anyone who turned the smoker in.
I checked in with the various friend groups multiple times to see if anyone had seen him cheating, which no one did. During the 30 days, I hung out with the smoker multiple times and did not see him smoke, nor did his car smell like smoke. He did consume an inordinate amount of sunflower seeds though.
pay out
At the 30 day mark, as promised, I paid out.
ongoing accountability
Although the first 30 days are undoubtedly the hardest, the bet is structured to ensure that diligence remains high initially, lest the loser have to repay a majority of their winnings. Given that loss aversion is much stronger than gain maximization, the possibility of losing $1500 – ($100 x n-months) ought to incentivize abstinence until the point where cravings subside entirely.
The future
I’ll provide an update on the success of this bet and any others I make with other smokers. I already have several interested parties and this seems like a good use of money to help add years to the lives of people I care about. If I know you personally, this bet is on the table for you.
If you’d like to chat through offering the bet to people in your life, I’d be happy to do so.